A Return to Magical Thinking?

The transition from the Mediaeval Period to the Early Modern Period – circa 1450 to 1550 – is very much characterised by the transition from magical to scientific thinking.

Obviously, this is a massive oversimplification, but it also happens to be – more or less – accurate. People used to believe that we were essentially pawns in a greater game being thrashed out by the gods – or just God – depending on your preference. The Earth was the mortal sphere where life and death played out with the eternal pre-life and afterlife the main foci of most philosophy and theology.

Indeed, philosophy and theology effectively held higher status than science in all thinking up until the end of the Enlightenment – a period lasting from the early C16 until the end of the C18. A period during which the scientific method gradually forced its way to the forefront of all cosmology.

I love giving the example of the Dutch, at this point. A tiny impoverished nation, dominated by the Spanish empire, announced in the early 1500s that they would accept anyone regardless of their religion.

Almost overnight, the Netherlands became a major power as the scientific free thinkers clustered within their borders and started contributing to their technology and economy. Catholic Spain, the greatest empire in the world in 1500 was almost gone as a military / political force by 1600 after their armies and navies had been devastated by the progressive countries of England, Holland and the German states.

Over the course of that century we saw the Reformation and Counter Reformation – a hundred years of conflict and recalibration as the basis of society was renegotiated.

But science won.

The societies that rejected dogma and accepted the scientific method were the societies that succeeded. All of you reading this article are inheritors of the scientific method and, by the standards of the past, enjoy a free and bounteous community solely because of this hard won success story.

And yet, in C21 Australia there are rumblings of discontent.

This is not to suggest that everything about our society is just peachy. There are a shitload of things I dislike about the way we’ve organised our socio-politics and economics. But the prevailing basis to all we do is scientific; ie, based on tested and retested ideas which have been proven correct again and again and again.

We build in accordance with engineering principles which stand the test of time.

We get onto planes because we trust the science.

We consult surgeons when we have a significant health problem.

Basically, our entire modern life is all about trusting the experts, but there are movements in particular areas which are now calling this into question.

There is an anti-elitist sentiment growing which disputes the findings of experts and even calls into question the entire scientific basis of modern life.

Alternative health therapies, for example, are massive business these days despite a total absence of scientific support (in many cases). People are willing to pay thousands of dollars for guru treatments which are placebo at best and lethal at worst, and yet the same people dispute gap payments of (maybe) $30 with doctors going beyond bulk billing.

This is not just a crazy fringe. For a significant minority there is a greater faith in unscientific methods than the methods recommended by the experts relying on science.

How did it get to this – this unravelling of Reason and return to Mediaeval magical thinking?

For a start, lots of people are making money from it. The Anti-vaxxer community are led by (mainly) young women trying to be internet influencers; ie, people who make money by driving internet traffic to their websites. Outrageous opinions are money in the bank for such people and every time you click on their pages they shout, “Ker-ching!”

But their business model is based on the fact that people believe them. People want to believe them. Trump based his entire presidency on doubting the science in favour of some other bizarre reality.

I suspect there is some aspect of the modern condition that behooves us to resent the status quo. To believe that the only way of fighting that sense of existential ennui is by seeking some alternative explanation for… pretty much everything. Even the moon landings are doubted despite absolute acres of evidence – not least that the landing sites can be viewed. (You can do it right now if you want.)

A significant minority of first world communities would rather believe the non-experts than the experts. But would you get on a plane built by a non-engineer? Would you drive your car over a bridge built by someone who reckoned gravity was bollocks?

No you wouldn’t, so what makes health science different?

Why are so many prepared to believe (a) that Covid isn’t really a problem and (b) that the Covid vaccines either don’t work or are likely to kill you?

I cannot explain this attitude. It defies Reason. It flies in the face of facts and figures yet people are prepared to demonstrate and challenge the law in support of ideas with zero orthodox support.

For everyone who doubts the efficacy of the various Covid vaccines, please ask yourself why. On what do you base your belief?

Is it informed scientific skepticism, or is it just an investment in click bait? We all want a return to normality (whatever that is likely to be going forward) but it has to be done properly. The dangerously seductive reasoning of lunatic demagogues like Alan Jones will only result in massive disruptions of the kind seen in the US, India and Brasil.

The experts tell us that Covid is real, that the vaccines are safe and that the only way back to normality is by reaching an appropriate level of vaccination.

Why would anyone doubt that in the absence of proper scientific evidence?

The answer to that question was easy in the Middle Ages.